COVID-19 pandemic on a possible scenario for the development of regional healthcare systems (based on assessment of mortality rates excluding external causes and primary incidence)

Introduction . Researchers have proven the effectiveness of assessing the level of development of regional healthcare using mortality rates excluding external causes and primary incidence, which led to its use for the purposes of our study to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on healthcare development scenarios. The purpose of the study was to assess the impact of the coronavirus infection COVID-19 pandemic on a possible scenario for the development of healthcare in the regions of the Volga Federal District. Materials and methods . The indicators of the mortality rates excluding external causes and primary incidence in the constituent entities of the Volga Federal District were studied during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2022) and the pre-COVID period 2012–2019, and the integral indicators of the mortality rates excluding external causes and primary incidence were calculated over time in accordance with the methodology developed by N. N. Karyakin et al. An increase in the mortality rates excluding external causes indicator and a simultaneous decrease in primary incidence was regarded as negative medical and demographic dynamics; an increase in primary incidence in combination with a decrease in the mortality rates excluding external causes was regarded positively. In accordance with the dynamics of the integral in- dicators, a ranking assessment of the constituent entities of the Volga Federal District was carried out into groups depending on a possible scenario for the development of regional healthcare (favorable, acceptable, transitional and negative). The rank assessment of regional healthcare systems that developed in the pre-COVID and post-COVID periods was compared with a similar rank distribution for the period 2005–2010 and the predicted scenario. Results . The 2020–2022 coronavirus infection COVID-19 pandemic did not have a significant impact on the scenarios for the development of healthcare systems in the Volga Federal District: in 11 out of 14 subjects, the scenarios did not change under the influence of the pandemic (favorable, acceptable and negative), in 2 subjects, the scenarios changed from acceptable to transitional and negative, in one subject, an improvement in the scenario was noted. Conclusion . The methodology for assessing the integral indicators of the mortality rates excluding external causes and primary incidence is of practical significance and can be used to assess the sustainability of the development of the regional healthcare system in emergency situations.