The Impact Mechanism of Digital Inclusive Finance on Regional Carbon Emission Intensity Based on Empirical Research

Based on panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020, this study systematically examines the mechanisms by which digital inclusive finance influences regional carbon emission intensity. Empirical results demonstrate that digital inclusive finance significantly suppresses carbon emission intensity by promoting social financing, but this effect exhibits regional heterogeneity and threshold constraints. Emission reductions are evident in eastern and central regions, where digital infrastructure is well-developed. However, the transmission efficiency of emission reductions is inefficient in western regions, constrained by low fintech penetration and reliance on energy-intensive industries. The study further finds that the emission reduction effect diminishes when the market capitalization share of energy-intensive industries exceeds a threshold of 3.53%. Using the XGBoost model, carbon emission intensity is projected to show a divergent trend over the next decade: "eastern regions lead the decline, while western regions face pressure." Regions like Beijing and Hainan will continue to improve, while regions like Inner Mongolia and Ningxia will maintain high levels. Regionally differentiated policies are recommended to strengthen the synergy between digital infrastructure development and industrial restructuring in western China.