Predicting the success of local gatherings: A comparison of organizer- and participant-side success in Meetup

This study examines the dynamics of local gatherings facilitated by Event-Based Social Networking (EBSN) platforms, an increasingly prominent mode of social interaction in urban settings. Although EBSN platforms are widely used to organize local events, little research has investigated the factors that determine their success across diverse urban environments or how socio-spatial contexts shape participation. To address this gap, we analyze a large-scale dataset of more than one million events across the 500 largest U.S. cities from Meetup.com by integrating geospatial, community-level, and event-specific features to predict event success. We develop models that assess event success from both participant and organizer perspectives. The results show that participant engagement is driven primarily by community characteristics, whereas organizer outcomes are shaped by a broader mix of features. Consistent patterns in event category preferences, such as the high participation observed in fitness-related events, indicate the influence of socio-cultural characteristics. Moreover, city-level differences underscore the importance of local context, as success rates vary independently of population size. These findings not only align with social theories on urban interaction and participation but also offer actionable insights for platform designers, community organizers, and policymakers aiming to foster local engagement. Ultimately, the study emphasizes the need to account for socio-spatial heterogeneity when designing digital systems that support urban community life. • Identified engagement differences revealing distinct social dynamics in EBSNs. • Found Fitness and Sports & Recreation lead in popularity, while Tech events show low interest. • Model accuracy varied by city, challenging links between size and popularity. • Explored how sociocultural contexts shape community engagement on EBSNs. • Offered insights for urban planning using EBSN events to boost engagement.