Heat Extraction Performance Evaluation of Horizontal Wells in Hydrothermal Reservoirs and Multivariate Sensitivity Analysis Based on the XGBoost-SHAP Algorithm

The present study investigated the heat extraction behavior of the horizontal well closed-loop geothermal systems under multi-factor influences. Particularly, the numerical model was established based on the geological condition of the geothermal field in Xiong’an New Area, and the XGBoost-SHAP (eXtreme Gradient Boosting and SHapley Additive exPlanations) algorithm was employed for multivariable analysis. The results indicated that the produced water temperature and thermal power of a 3000 m-long horizontal well were 2.61 and 4.23 times higher than those of the vertical well, respectively, demonstrating tantalizing heat extraction potential. The horizontal section length (SHAP values of 8.13 and 165.18) was the primary factor influencing production temperature and thermal power, followed by the injection rate (SHAP values of 1.96 and 64.35), while injection temperature (SHAP values of 1.27 and 21.42), geothermal gradient (SHAP values of 0.95 and 19.97), and rock heat conductivity (SHAP values of 0.334 and 17.054) had relatively limited effects. The optimal horizontal section length was 2375 m. Under this condition, the produced water temperature can be maintained higher than 40 °C, thereby meeting the heating demand. These findings provide important insights and guidance for the application of horizontal wells in hydrothermal reservoirs.