Predictors and protectors of the risk of developing post-traumatic stress disorder in Ukrainians as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian war: Demographic aspects and war stressors

Post-traumatic stress disorder is considered one of the mental health consequences of war. Predicting the level of risk of developing post-traumatic stress disorder among the population is an essential task in terms of strategic planning, including the costs of building a mental health system. A review of meta-analyses of postwar societies and estimates of the level of post-traumatic stress disorder among Ukrainians in the first year of the war suggests that the expected prevalence of this disorder is much higher than the officially determined 10-20%. The study analysed the results of a mass representative survey of the adult population of Ukraine conducted from 6 to 10 October 2023 (the number of respondents was 2,767) using the index of post-traumatic stress disorder (criterion B – intrusion) based on a questionnaire for assessing the symptoms of stress disorders among civilians. It was found that 75% of the civilian population does not have clinically significant levels of post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms in the 20th month of the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war. The expected risk of developing this disorder at 25% reflects optimistic dynamics compared to 2022 but requires intensive development of the mental health system and commensurate investments. The demographic preconditions for the development of post-traumatic stress disorder include female gender, younger age, residence in the frontline and de-occupied territories, and low financial welfare. According to the regression analysis, two groups were identified among the most common stressors of the war: a group of subjective stressors, traumatic memories, and a group of social stressors, discrimination, lack of support, and moral dilemmas. One of the most common stressors of the war, which is relevant for almost 81% of Ukrainians, is the experience of seeing and hearing things in the media, which confirms the need for further investigation of the impact of war images on mental health