Forecasting the critical operational time of a generator in a wind power plant based on diagnoses in 5-valued logic (5VL)

<ns3:p>The article presents the problem of predicting the occurrence of a generator failure time in a wind power plant diagnosed in 5-value logic (5VL). Generators in (EW) have in-creasing complexity of their construction, they also work at higher power generated therefore have a tendency to more frequent failures. Therefore, the question arises when, at what time to organize the optimal renewal of these devices. The answer to this ques-tion is that the optimum renewal of Generators (EWs) should be organized at a time when the generator is in critical condition. The research is based on the developed mod-el of the operation process of the generator is a 5-state model, with states from the col-lection {4, 3, 2, 1, 0}. For the 5-state model of the operation process, its graph and model in analytical form have been developed. An analytical model of the operation process of a generator is a set of differentials developed on the basis of the Kolmogorov-Chapman state equations. The solution of the developed system of equations in the analytical mod-el will allow the determination of the probability of Pi(t) of the occurrence of the distin-guished states of the generator and to determine the generalized reliability function of Ro(t). The probability values of Pi(t) and the reliability functions of Ro(t), which will be used to estimate the predicted values, are of particular importance in simulated forecast-ing studies.</ns3:p>