Predicting flexibility from LV networks by using geospatial forecasting and synthetic networks

The resort to flexibility from Distributed Energy Resources and Demand Response can increase the hosting capacity of existing distribution networks to accept renewable generation and new high peak / coincident loads. The use of flexibility used in providing local services to distribution system operators (DSOs) can limit the availability of flexibility for system ancillary services necessary for the transmission system operator (TSO) to ensure security and adequacy. Since flexibility exists in finite quantities, the risk of competition between TSOs and DSOs can increase with the progression of energy transition. The same interaction can appear between Medium Voltage (MV) and Low Voltage (LV) grids, mainly when smaller DSOs are supplied from MV distribution networks operated by a different DSO. The Secondary Substation (SS), the interface between the MV and the LV, can provide ancillary services by changing its working point to keep the operation of the MV network within technical boundaries. Forecasting the SS behaviour is not straightforward due to the lack of information on LV networks and generation/consumption patterns. This paper proposes a methodology that identifies and forecasts LV’s flexibility without creating technical issues for the LV system itself, resorting to the synthetic network concept. Exemplary case studies demonstrate the proposed approach validity.