Data-driven regionalisation of nation-wide energy scenarios for local grid planning: a case study of Zurich’s distribution network

Reliable active power scenarios are essential for the effective planning of distribution grids. In response to the energy transition which increasingly burdens the electricity grids, the Swiss parliament enacted the ‘Electricity Grid Strategy’ legislative package in 2019 to guide grid expansion. A key component of this package is the official national scenario framework, which provides a standardised basis for planning both transmission and high-voltage grids. This paper introduces an innovative method for translating these nationwide energy scenarios to individual medium- and low-voltage substations, offering a granular view on power demand suitable for distribution grid planning. The model accounts for local and seasonal variability, as well as variations across different voltage levels, and integrates all available measurements. The method is demonstrated and illustrated through a case study in Zurich, highlighting its capacity to generate actionable insights. The results have been successfully applied in multiple grid planning studies, validating the model’s practical value and robustness. By bridging the gap between national scenarios and local grid planning requirements, the model provides essential support for distribution grid development.