Effect of climate change in electricity distribution systems in Nordic conditions

This study investigates the impact of climate change on electricity distribution systems in Nordic conditions, focusing on th e effects of soil frost and crown-snow load on overhead distribution network power lines. Windstorms and snow and ice accumulation are the primary causes of faults in Nordic distribution networks. With climate change, soil frost days are decreasing, reducing the anchoring effect on trees, while crown-snow loads are increasing in certain regions, potentially leading to increased outage risks. The study uses high-resolution climate change scenarios and geospatial analysis to identify network sections with a high risk from these phenomena. The results indicate significant and varying changes with northern areas experiencing an average of 35% growth in crown-snow loads and 20 % decreases in soil frost days while south-western areas have a decrease in soil frost duration by an average of 30% and 15% decrease in snow loads. Furthermore, the variation in changes between DSO’s even in the same area was found to be high. The findings underscore the need for distribution system operators to incorporate higher resolution climate scenarios into their long-term planning to mitigate future outage risks in a changing climate.