Further integrated physical and probabilistic modelling of low voltage cable degradation with a view to future technologies and asset management strategies

This paper presents an updated novel, modular approach for modelling the risk of imminent expiry of underground low voltage (LV) cables. This methodology returns a probabilistic measure of cable damage which can be used to identify cables most at risk of faults prior to any physical investigation. Building on previous work, models have been generalised and refined to better reflect real LV networks in several ways. The general approach can be applied to assess the benefit of various load monitoring efforts or alternative maintenance strategies. This can facilitate an efficient, proactive approach to managing an increasingly serious problem for DNOs, as the rising uptake of low carbon technologies (LCTs) is expected to increase LV cable fault and expiry rates. Several of the models developed within this modelling framework may also be of much broader use in physical and probabilistic power system modelling.