Modelling dynamic network usage in network- and operations planning using Stedin energy transition impact assessment model (SETIAM)

Stedin uses the integrated infrastructure outlook (II3050) and the Energy Transition Impact Assessment Model (SETIAM) for long-term network planning. Underlying SETIAM are fixed, estimated usage profiles. Dynamic usage patterns, influences from e.g. weather and customers with dynamic tariffs and IoT responding in (near) real-time to price variations make these profiles increasingly uncertain. This leads to uncertainty in network infrastructure planning: planning for worst case might lead to overinvestment, planning below to congested networks. It also brings uncertainty to network operations: planning for worst case usage leads to inefficient network use and too large reservations of flex capacity, too small margins lead to network overload and need for corrective measures. In our project we have replaced the fixed profiles with probability density functions of network usage to be used by both network planning and -operations therewith taking a step towards stochastic network development.