Analysis of LV monitoring data for application in network planning and forecasting

As the decarbonisation of heat and transport systems via electrification progresses additional low voltage (LV) electricity network capacity is needed to accommodate the connection of electricity customer’s low carbon technologies (LCTs), such as heat pumps and electric vehicles. Efficient delivery of this electricity network expansion requires enhanced understanding of the existing use of LV networks. To reduce uncertainty in locational network intervention decision making, Northern Powergrid (NPg), along with all UK DNOs, are increasing the direct measurement of power flows through assets such as distribution substations. This is providing improved network visibility and providing greater insight into LV network utilisation. Techniques to optimise the utilisation of this monitored half-hourly data stream to obtain deeper network understanding are crucial to confidently forecast future demands and inform and prioritise network investment decisions. This paper reports upon refined approaches for using volume LV monitoring data in network planning, avoiding simplistic assumptions to reduce uncertainty risk in investment decisions. Data analytics techniques of LV monitoring data streams are presented that have delivered practical value in network planning. Learnings from the application of LV monitoring data analysis to the planning of network interventions are considered and opportunities for alternative solutions are explored.