Flood Risk Prediction and Management by Integrating GIS and HEC-RAS 2D Hydraulic Modelling: A Case Study of Ungheni, Iasi County, Romania

Floods are among the most frequent and destructive natural hazards worldwide, with increasingly severe socioeconomic consequences due to rapid urbanization, land use changes, and climate variability. While the combination of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) with models such as HEC-RAS has been extensively explored for flood risk management, many existing studies remain limited to one-dimensional (1D) models or use coarse-resolution terrain data, often underestimating flood risk and failing to produce critical multivariate flood characteristics in densely built urban areas. This study applies a two-dimensional (2D) hydraulic modeling framework in HEC-RAS combined with GIS-based spatial analysis, using a high-resolution (1 × 1 m) LiDAR-derived Digital Terrain Model (DTM) and a hybrid mesh refined between 2 × 2 m and 8 × 8 m, with the main contributions represented by the specific application context and methodological choices. A key methodological aspect is the direct integration of synthetic hydrographs with defined exceedance probabilities (10%, 1%, and 0.1%) into the 2D model, thereby reducing the need for extensive hydrological simulations and defining a data-driven approach for resource-constrained environments. The primary novelty is the application of this high-resolution urban modeling framework to a Romanian urban–peri-urban setting, where detailed hydrological observations are scarce. Unlike previous studies in Romania, this approach applies detailed channel and floodplain discretization at high spatial resolution, explicitly incorporating anthropogenic features like buildings and detailed land use roughness for the accurate representation of local hydraulic dynamics. The resulting outputs (inundation extents, depths, and velocities) support risk assessment and spatial planning in the Ungheni locality (Iași County, Romania), providing a practical, transferable workflow adapted to data-scarce regions. Scenario results quantify vulnerability: for the 0.1% exceedance probability scenario (with a calibration accuracy of ±15–30 min deviation for peak flow timing), the flood risk may affect 882 buildings, 42 land parcels, and 13.5 km of infrastructure. This framework contributes to evidence-based decision-making for climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies, improving urban resilience.