Effectiveness of state support for Ukrainian business under conditions of economic instability

Methods. The results were obtained through the application of the following methods: systematic analysis – in studying the mechanisms of state credit programs' functioning; economicstatistical analysis – in assessing the dynamics of lending indicators and the effectiveness of state support; comparative analysis – in comparing Ukrainian experience with international credit support practices; structural-functional method – in determining sectoral and regional distribution of credit resources; empirical research – in analyzing statistical data on the implementation of the «Affordable Loans 5–7–9%» program during the period of economic instability. Results. It has been established that state credit mechanisms play a critical role in ensuring the sustainability of small and medium-sized businesses under conditions of systemic economic instability. There has been revealed the ability of the Affordable Loans 5–7–9% program to adapt under the influence of exogenous shocks of various nature, including pandemic and full-scale war. The positive multiplier effect of state credit programs and their impact on tax revenue growth from participants has been proven. There has been determined the optimal sectoral structure of lending with priority given to the real sector of the economy and the effectiveness of special mechanisms for supporting businesses in high military risk zones. Novelty. A comprehensive methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of state support credit programs under conditions of prolonged economic instability has been developed, integrating financial, social, and institutional performance indicators. The multiplier effect of state credit programs under extreme conditions has been scientifically substantiated, and a direct relationship between state support parameters and enterprise financial stability indicators has been established. Specific features of credit mechanisms' functioning under martial law conditions have been identified, including adaptation of banking infrastructure to extreme conditions. Practical value. Scientifically grounded recommendations for optimizing state credit support policy have been formulated, including program differentiation based on sectoral criteria, strengthening mechanisms for high-risk regions, developing digital lending infrastructure, and implementing a system of long-term effect indicators. The research results can be used by executive authorities to improve existing business support programs, by banking institutions to develop specialized credit products, and by international organizations to assess the effectiveness of technical assistance programs during post-conflict economic recovery..