Predictive Factors and Survival Outcomes of Nasogastric Tube Removal in Community-Dwelling Residents: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Objectives To develop a predictive model for nasogastric tube (NGT) removal and examine survival-related factors among community-dwelling residents. Design Retrospective cohort study (2016–2020) using medical records. Setting and Participants A total of 255 home care residents with NGTs from a regional hospital in Taiwan. Methods This retrospective study was conducted to identify predictors across 30 variables from clinical records and nursing assessments. Logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models assessed predictors of successful NGT removal, with model performance evaluated using ROC curve. Results Key predictors of successful NGT removal (18.0%, n = 46) and 12-month survival were activities of daily living, instrumental activities of daily living, and upper limb strength. Survival was higher in the removal group, and the model showed good accuracy (AUC = 0.811). Conclusion This model provides a clinically applicable tool that incorporates functional and medical indicators to assess NGT removal readiness, demonstrating strong predictive validity.