Ukrainian Refugees

Abstract This study focuses on selected economic impacts of the refugee crisis in Poland and Germany created by Russia's war in Ukraine. Our analysis focuses on a question: between Germany and Poland, which country is maximizing the opportunity offered by the Ukrainian refugee population? We find that Germany is attracting a disproportionate number of Ukrainian refugees, in response to both economic and social pull forces. Applying well-established economic theories on labor markets, strongly suggests that Germany's “pull” forces, though costly in the short-term, are likely to benefit that country's labor market more in the medium and longer-term than the policies currently employed by Poland. We base this conclusion on the analysis of the Ukrainian refugee populations in both countries and the decision by many of them, after first arriving in Poland, to subsequently continue to Germany as their destination. In so doing, we identify the forces driving those refugee movements against the backdrop of differences in each country's economic development. We also discern current policies towards refugees in both countries, as well as certain impacts of this refugee inflow on their respective labor markets. Policy implications for Poland and other countries facing similar refugee challenges are also presented. Like most economic studies of migration, our work employs secondary quantitative data, consistent with how such analyses are conducted in the field. The relevant data reflect the recency of these events and are therefore limited to the years 2022–2023.