Income Inequality and the Realization of Fertility Desires in China: Evidence from CGSS Panel Data

China is currently grappling with a critically low fertility rate and rapidly aging population, both of which pose significant threats to its long-term socioeconomic sustainability. Despite the relaxation of the one-child policy, the fertility outcomes remain far below replacement levels, indicating that policy alone is insufficient. This study shifts focus from fertility intentions to the realization of these intentions, examining the impact of regional income inequality on the fertility gapdefined as the difference between an individual's ideal and actual number of children. Using panel data from the China General Social Survey (CGSS) spanning 2013 to 2023, this research employs a two-way fixed effects model at the province and year levels. Results indicate that higher regional income inequality significantly widens the fertility gap, primarily through intensifying individuals' sense of relative deprivation and lowering their perceived socioeconomic status. Furthermore, the heterogeneity analysis indicates that this negative impact is more pronounced among urban residents, individuals aged 30-40, and those residing in the eastern regions of China. These findings underscore the need to address economic inequality and implement targeted policy interventions to foster a more fertility-supportive environment.