Short-Term Forecasting Approach of Wind Power Relying on NWP-CEEMDAN-LSTM

Precise wind power forecasting has several benefits, such as optimized peak regulation in power systems, enhanced safety analysis, and improved energy efficiency. Considering the substantial influence of meteorological data, such as wind speed and temperature, on wind power generation, and to minimize the impact of fluctuations and complexity of wind power data on the forecast results, this paper proposes a combined wind power forecasting method. This approach is based on the long short-term memory network (LSTM) model, using the maximal information coefficient (MIC) method to select numerical weather prediction (NWP) and combining the efficiency of complete EEMD with the adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) method for nonlinear signal decomposition. Results indicate that the accuracy of the forecast results is supported by NWP. Moreover, wind power data are decomposed by the CEEMDAN algorithm and converted into relatively regular sub-sequences with small fluctuations. The MIC algorithm effectively reduces the redundant information in NWP data, and the LSTM algorithm addresses the uncertainty of wind power data. Finally, the wind power of multiple wind farms is forecasted. Comparison of the forecast results of different methods revealed that the NWP-CEEMDAN-LSTM method proposed in this paper, which considers feature extraction using MIC, effectively tracks power fluctuations and improves forecast performance, thereby reducing the forecast error of wind power.