Spatiotemporal Variation and Network Correlation Analysis of Flood Resilience in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration Based on the DRIRA Model

To address the flood risks driven by climate change and urbanization, this study proposes the DRIRA model (Driving Force, Resistance, Influence, Recoverability, Adaptability). Distinct from BRIC (Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities) and PEOPLES (Population, Environmental/Ecosystem, Organized Governmental Services, Physical Infrastructure, Lifestyle, Economic Development, Social–Cultural Capital), the model emphasizes dynamic interactions across the entire disaster lifecycle, introduces the “Influence” dimension, and integrates SNA (Social Network Analysis) with a modified gravity model to reveal cascading effects and resilience linkages among cities. Based on an empirical study of 30 cities in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration, and using a combination of entropy weighting, a modified spatial gravity model, and social network analysis, the study finds that: (1) Urban flood resilience increased by 35.5% from 2012 to 2021, but spatial polarization intensified, with Zhengzhou emerging as the dominant core and peripheral cities falling behind; (2) Economic development, infrastructure investment, and intersectoral governance coordination are the primary factors driving resilience differentiation; (3) Intercity resilience connectivity has strengthened, yet administrative fragmentation continues to undermine collaborative effectiveness. In response, three strategic pathways are proposed: coordinated development of sponge and resilient infrastructure, activation of flood insurance market mechanisms, and intelligent cross-regional dispatch of emergency resources. These strategies offer a scientifically grounded framework for balancing physical flood defenses with institutional resilience in high-risk urban regions.