Comparing China–Russia and US–India Strategic Alignments: The Stadial Model of Alignment Formation (SMAF) Framework

Amid intensifying great power rivalry, China–Russia and US–India strategic alignments have moved to the forefront of international politics. However, experts have struggled to define these two relationships. There has been little effort to provide a systematic, theory-grounded assessment of the two alignments, and almost no attempts to methodically compare them, leaving the understanding of global power dynamics incomplete. This article fills this gap by applying the Stadial Model of Alignment Formation (SMAF) framework to compare the cases in terms of overall strategic cooperation and its progress over time. The structured comparison also explores alignment incentives in the two dyads. The article further suggests modifications to the SMAF model and demonstrates how scholars can systematically measure the depth of strategic alignments, helping to draw distinctions among important cases. It shows that by most measurements, China–Russia alignment surpasses US–India alignment—a condition unlikely to reverse without dramatic shifts in global politics.