Chain relationship between cumulative ecological risk and physical activity pattern on college students mediated by exercise atmosphere and self-control

To investigate the effect of cumulative ecological risk (CER) on college students' physical activity patterns (PAP) and to analyze the mediating effect of exercise atmosphere (EA) and self-control (SC), with the aim of promoting the convergence of university physical education with community sports and helping college students to form a healthy physical lifestyle. A total of 966 college students were selected from schools in Beijing, China, and a cross-sectional survey of cumulative ecological risk, physical activity patterns, exercise atmosphere, and self-control was conducted using four scales. Differences, correlations and mediated models were analyzed using ANOVA, Pearson and structural equation modelling (SEM). CER negatively predicted PAP (β=-0.293, P < 0.01), SC (β=-0.523, P < 0.01), and EA (β=-0.352, P < 0.01). EA positively predicted SC (β = 0.358, P < 0.01) and PAP (β = 0.084, P < 0.01), while SC positively predicted PAP (β = 0.256, P < 0.01). Mediation analysis using the Bootstrap method indicated that CER affected PAP both directly and indirectly through three significant paths: Direct effect: CER→PAP (effect size = 0.636). Indirect effects: CER→EA→PAP, CER→SC→PAP, and CER→EA→SC→PAP (combined effect size = 0.364). This also indicates that CER can directly reduce PAP among college students, while effectively enhancing EA and SC, thereby mitigating the negative effects of CER. (1) CER directly affects college students' sport lifestyles, and family and school risks account for the largest proportion of the total, so resolving an individual's relationship with family and school is an important way to improve sport participation. (2) Both EA and SC positively predict PAP and mitigate the negative effects of CER on it, so increasing the levels of both is also an effective way to improve individuals' sport experiences.