Presidential Partisanship and Sectoral ETF Performance in U.S. Equity Markets

This study investigates how U.S. presidential political leadership affects financial market performance at the sector level, offering a novel contribution to the literature that has largely focused on aggregate market indices. While prior research documents partisan effects on overall stock returns, little is known about how different sectors respond to changes in political leadership. Using sector-specific exchange-traded funds (ETFs) categorized by the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS), we examine sectoral return patterns and volatility under Republican and Democratic presidencies. This study contributes to the growing intersection of finance and political economy by providing a nuanced, empirical understanding of sectoral behavior across political cycles. The results offer valuable insights for investors, portfolio managers, and policymakers, enhancing their ability to anticipate sector-level risks and opportunities under changing political leadership.