Ground Subsidence Prediction and Shaft Control in Pillar Recovery During Mine Closure

With the progressive depletion of coal resources, the recovery of shaft pillars has become an important means of improving resource utilization and reducing waste. Taking the main shaft pillar recovery of the Longxiang Coal Mine at the stage of mine closure as the engineering background, this study systematically investigates ground subsidence prediction and shaft stability control under strip mining with symmetrical extraction. An improved subsidence prediction model was established by integrating the probability integral method with superposition theory, and its validity was verified through numerical simulations and field monitoring data. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can accurately capture the subsidence behavior under complex geological conditions, with prediction errors ranging from 6.4 mm to 399.1 mm. In fully subsided zones, the percentage error was as low as 1.1–3.5%, while larger deviations were observed in areas where subsidence was incomplete, confirming both the reliability and the practical limitations of the method under different conditions. Furthermore, the deformation mechanisms of the shaft during pillar recovery were analyzed. Monitoring results indicated that the maximum subsidence at the east and west sides of the shaft reached 7620.6 mm, accompanied by local cracks exceeding 1500 mm, which caused significant damage to surface structures. To address these risks, a safety control scheme based on an integrated “prediction–monitoring–control” framework is proposed, including shaft wall reinforcement, optimization of mining parameters, and continuous ground subsidence monitoring. By combining real-time monitoring with the superposition of small working face predictions, the scheme enables maximum recovery of shaft pillar coal while ensuring operational safety. This study provides a scientific basis and technical support for shaft pillar recovery in Longxiang Coal Mine and offers valuable theoretical guidance for similar mine closure projects, with significant implications for engineering practice.