Scenario-Based Analysis of Reverse Flow and Hydraulic Backwater Effects on Dam Failures

In dam failure applications, the dam break mechanism and the outflow hydrograph are among the most uncertain factors. Therefore, 2D hydraulic modeling and analyzing dam failure scenarios, aiming to reduce uncertainties related to different failure mechanisms by creating 11 distinct scenarios, are carried out. During the modeling process, the interactions between the dam structure and the downstream flow area were evaluated through two-dimensional analyses, incorporating various failure types such as "overtopping" and "piping." According to the analysis results, peak flow rates varied between 6,510.06 m³/s and 33,004.04 m³/s depending on the scenario, while the time to reach peak flow ranged from 18 to 91 minutes. It aims to provide a negative backpressure of the hydraulic behavior of dam failures, contributing to risk management and emergency planning while offering critical insights to enhance safety factors in dam design.