Enhancing stochastic network planning for future energy systems: the BKW ProgRés Explorer

The transition to sustainable energy systems necessitates innovative solutions for managing the increasing complexity of electricity distribution networks. The BKW ProgRés Explorer is a cutting-edge application designed to facilitate stochastic network planning, addressing the challenges posed by the integration of renewable energy sources and the electrification of heat and transport. Accessible to all stakeholders, BKW ProgRés Explorer aims to highlight the pivotal role of distributed system operators (DSOs) in enabling the energy transition. This paper demonstrates how the widespread integration of photovoltaic systems (PVs), electric vehicles (EVs), and heat pumps (HPs) in low-voltage (LV) networks necessitates proactive planning approaches. It explores the complexity of these approaches, evaluating hundreds of scenarios and the measures required to maintain grid stability. The BKW ProgRés Explorer aligns with national energy perspectives, incorporating projections for renewable technology deployment up to 2050 [1]. This foresight is crucial as distribution network expansion costs are estimated to reach CHF 30 billion under base scenarios, with potential costs soaring to CHF 66 billion in adverse conditions [2], ultimately impacting consumer network tariffs and with the risk of slowing down the energy transition.