Estimate network expansion needs through correlations with territorial characteristics

The electrification of energy end uses will require significant investments in the infrastructure of the electricity distribution network that need to be planned accurately. The paper proposes a methodology that takes advantage of existing correlations between load and network infrastructure to quantify network reinforcements in scenarios of increasing demand. Building on a prior analysis of French public data correlating distribution networks with building volumes, the approach is adapted and applied to the Italian context, which results align with findings from other studies, despite the adopted approximations. Compared to other studies, it has the advantage of rapidly studying many scenarios, allowing to easily perform sensitivity analysis on some parameters. In this regard, it is intended as a complementary tool for initial assessments, providing rapid approximations that can be refined using more detailed methods. The methodology also underscores the utility of open data and could be improved if more detailed information on network infrastructure (e.g., nominal power of transformer) and users (e.g., position and peak load power) were available.