Current state and future needs of load forecasting for distribution planning – U.S. Perspective

Load forecasting is fundamental for distribution planning and consequently, load forecasting methods and practices have advanced over many years to meet the needs of distribution planners. However, with the increasing electrification of end-use technologies and adoption of distributed energy resources (DER), distribution planners need more sophisticated capabilities to forecast loads with increasing granularity, precision and over longer time periods. This paper reviews current distribution system operator (DSO) load forecasting practices and associated gaps and needs based on a recent survey and interviews collecting input from DSOs in North America and internationally. Specifically, this paper maps industry forecasting practices in terms of methodologies, tools, and data sources applied; how weather impacts are considered; and various spatial and temporala spects. Gaps and needs associated with the current DSO forecasting practices are also discussed. Finally, this paper highlights select research efforts in the U.S. to address the gaps and needs with the focus on how to account for transportation and building electrification loads in DSO forecasting.