Probabilistic assessment of EV charging impacts on distribution grid planning

As global Electric Vehicle (EV) adoption accelerates, the integration of EV charging infrastructure into distribution grids presents substantial challenges. Traditional grid planning methods, based primarily on deterministic models, are increasingly insufficient due to the unpredictable nature of EV charging demands. This paper introduces a probabilistic planning approach that incorporates various stochastic uncertainties such as charger location, arrival times, and energy demands to enhance grid management. By simulating realistic EV charging profiles and their impacts on the grid, this methodology facilitates more accurate predictions of potential grid violations. This approach allows grid operators to explore flexible grid integration strategies and make informed decisions about infrastructure investments and EV demand response requirements. The results highlight the value of flexibility in mitigating grid upgrade decisions and suggest that future grid planning should incorporate adaptive strategies and demand-side management measures to accommodate growing EV loads efficiently.