Construction and Comparative Analysis of a Water Quality Simulation and Prediction Model for Plain River Networks

In plain river networks, a sluggish flow due to the flat terrain and hydraulic structures significantly reduces water’s capacity for self-purification, leading to persistent water pollution that threatens aquatic ecosystems and human health. Despite being critical, effective water quality prediction proves challenging in such regions, with current models lacking either physical interpretability or temporal accuracy. To address this gap, both a process-based model (MIKE 21) and a deep learning model (CNN-LSTM-Attention) were developed in this study to predict key water quality indicators—dissolved oxygen (DO), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP)—in a typical river network area in Jiaxing, China. This site was selected for its representative complexity and acute pollution challenges. The MIKE 21 model demonstrated strong performance, with R2 values above 0.88 for all indicators, offering high spatial resolution and mechanistic insight. The CNN-LSTM-Attention model excelled in capturing temporal dynamics, achieving an R2 of 0.9934 for DO. The results indicate the complementary nature of these two approaches: while MIKE 21 supports scenario-based planning, the deep learning model enables highly accurate real-time forecasting. The findings are transferable to similar river network systems, providing a robust reference for selecting modeling frameworks in the design of water pollution control strategies.