Assessing the risk of environmental decline for farmers: key factors and regional trends in North Kordofan State, Sudan

Environmental degradation poses a threat to agricultural systems and livelihoods, particularly in developing countries. Research on farmers' vulnerability to environmental stressors in Sudan remains limited, hindering policymakers' ability to design interventions. This study aims to fill this gap by identifying socioeconomic and environmental drivers of household vulnerability and conducting spatial analysis to identify patterns that enhance resilience and sustainable agriculture. A survey of 300 farming households was conducted using multistage random sampling. A household vulnerability index was developed through principal component analysis, and ordered logistic regression identified key drivers. Spatial analysis integrated land degradation and precipitation data to examine distribution of vulnerability. Results showed 23% were low, 56.5% moderate, and 20.5% highly vulnerable. Significant factors influencing vulnerability included household size, literacy, livestock ownership, access to credit, land tenure security, and perceptions of land degradation. Environmental stressors such as rainfall variability and desertification played a role. Spatial analysis revealed a correlation between high-vulnerability regions and land degradation, while areas with higher precipitation exhibited lower vulnerability. This research provides insights for policymakers in Sudan and a framework for other climate-sensitive regions. It emphasizes integrating socioeconomic support with environmental management strategies to enhance resilience, safeguard livelihoods, and contribute to UN Sustainable Development Goals.