Influence of Soil Temperature on Potential Evaporation over Saturated Surfaces—In Situ Lysimeter Study

Potential evaporation (PE) from saturated bare surfaces is the basis for estimating actual evaporation (Es) in agricultural and related disciplines. Most models estimate PE using meteorological data. Thus, the dependence of soil temperature (T) on PE is often simplified in applications. To address this gap, we conducted an in situ lysimeter experiment in the Guanzhong Basin, China, continuously measuring PE, T, and soil heat flux (G) at high temporal resolution over three fully saturated sandy soils. Results show that annual PE over fine sand was 7.1% and 11.0% higher than that of coarse sand and gravel. The observed PE differences across textures can be quantitatively explained using the surface energy balance equation and a radiatively coupled Penman-Monteith equation, accounting for the dependence of T on net radiation (Rn) and G. In contrast, PE estimates diverged from observations when Rn and G were assumed to be independent of T. We further evaluated the influence of T and other influencing variables on PE. The random forest model identified that near-surface heat storage variations (∆S) contribute most significantly to PE estimation (relative importance = 0.37), followed by surface temperature (0.24) and sensible heat flux (0.23). These findings highlight the critical role of near-surface temperature in PE estimation.