Research on Optimal Water Resource Allocation in Inland River Basins Based on Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of Blue and Green Water—Taking the Taolai River Basin of the Heihezi Water System as an Example

Water demand has increased due to population growth and rapid socioeconomic development, creating conflicts between human activities and water resources and having a substantial impact on the balance between blue and green water supplies. Existing study lacks a spatial perspective to examine the inherent relationship between blue and green water supply and demand, particularly in terms of geographical differentiation characteristics and rational allocation of blue and green water supply–demand balance in inland river basins. Using the Taolai River Basin as a case study, this research uses the distributed hydrological model SWAT from a blue–green water resources viewpoint to simulate the spatiotemporal distribution features of blue and green water resources at the sub-basin scale from 2002 to 2021. The supply and demand balance relationship of blue and green water resources within the basin was investigated, an assessment index system for water resource security was developed, and the realizable potential of blue water resources was quantified using various indicators. The findings show that during the study period, the average annual green water resources in the Taolai River Basin were 1.95 times greater than blue water resources, making green water the most abundant component of regional water resources. Spatially, both blue and green water resources showed considerable latitudinal zonality, with a declining tendency from south to north and very consistent distribution patterns. Blue water resources showed high geographic variability, with a safety index more than one, suggesting that supply–demand imbalances were most concentrated in the upper and intermediate ranges of the irrigated region, as well as the desert zone, where safety levels were relatively low. In contrast, green water resources had a safety score ranging from 0.7 to 1.0, indicating great overall safety and negligible regional variability. During the research period, the average annual theoretical transferable blue water resources were 4.06 × 108 m3, based on cross-regional water resource allocation potential analysis. This reveals tremendous potential for enhancing regional water resource allocation, hence providing substantial support for effective water consumption within the Taolai River Basin and regional economic growth. In conclusion, the assessment method developed in this work provides a solid foundation for improving water resource allocation and sustainable management in river basins. It provides technical assistance in the construction of water network systems in inland river basins, which is critical in establishing reasonable water resource distribution across various areas within these basins.