Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Zonal Control of Non-Grain Cultivated Land in Major Grain Producing Areas: A Case Study of Henan Province

Ensuring food security amidst increasing non-grain utilization of cultivated land is a critical challenge in major grain-producing regions. This study analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution and driving mechanisms of non-grain cultivated land in Henan Province, China, from 2012 to 2023, using spatial autocorrelation, multiple linear regression, geographically and temporally weighted regression model, and cluster analysis. Results show that the non-grain ratio exhibited a fluctuating yet overall increasing trend, from 27.47% in 2012 to 25.91% in 2017 and reaching 30.28% in 2023, with higher values in the northern and southwestern counties of the province. Spatial clustering patterns remained relatively stable, characterized by a “high–high clustering in the southwest and low–low clustering in the north,” which was further substantiated by significant Global Moran’s I values (0.362 in 2012 and 0.307 in 2023). Key drivers included per capita level of agricultural mechanization, labor force per unit of cultivated land area, output value per unit of cultivated land area, and per capita disposable income of rural residents. PCA and K-means clustering identified three zonal types: agricultural production support (45.10% of counties), agricultural production weakening (35.29% of counties), and economically location-guided (19.61% of counties). The findings underscore the need for differentiated policies—such as precision subsidies, land consolidation, and ecological farming practices. This study provides a scientific basis for zonal governance of non-grain cultivated land in grain-producing areas.