Carbon storage prediction and its dominant factors in the Yellow River Delta under the combined action of natural and artificial factors

Simulating and predicting the change patterns of future carbon storage is highly important for promoting ecological conservation. The PLUS and InVEST models were applied to simulate and assess the spatiotemporal patterns of carbon storage in the Yellow River Delta (YRD) from 1990 to 2060, and a geographically weighted regression model and geodetector were utilized to determine the dominant factors. The results showed that (1) Carbon storage density tended to decrease from inland areas to coastal areas. (2) From 1990 to 2060, the carbon storage gravity centres were mostly located in Lijin County. (3) From 1990 to 2020, the northern coastal regions of the YRD were among the primary carbon sinks, while the eastern and southeastern regions were among the major carbon sources. By 2060, the central and eastern parts of the estuary area will be transformed into new carbon source regions, while the northern parts of the Kenli District are expected to be transformed into new carbon sink regions. (4) From 1990 to 2020, the dominant factors influencing carbon storage included vegetation coverage, population density, and GDP. These findings contribute significantly to our understanding of land use change's impact on the carbon cycle in YRD.