Deep Learning for Predicting Surface Elevation Change in Tailings Storage Facilities from UAV-Derived DEMs

Tailings storage facilities (TSFs) have experienced numerous global failures, many linked to active deposition on tailings beaches. Understanding these processes is vital for effective management. As deposition alters surface elevation, developing an explainable model to predict the changes can enhance insight into deposition dynamics and support proactive TSF management. This study applies deep learning (DL) to predict surface elevation changes in tailings storage facilities (TSFs) from high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) generated from UAV photogrammetry. Three DL architectures, including multilayer perceptron (MLP), fully convolutional network (FCN), and residual network (ResNet), were evaluated across spatial patch sizes of 64 × 64, 128 × 128, and 256 × 256 pixels. The results show that incorporating broader spatial contexts improves predictive accuracy, with ResNet achieving an R2 of 0.886 at the 256 × 256 scale, explaining nearly 89% of the variance in observed deposition patterns. To enhance interpretability, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) were applied, revealing that spatial coordinates and curvature exert the strongest influence, linking deposition patterns to discharge distance and microtopographic variability. By prioritizing predictive performance while providing mechanistic insight, this framework offers a practical and quantitative tool for reliable TSF monitoring and management.