Study on Spatial Pattern Changes and Driving Factors of Land Use/Cover in Coastal Areas of Eastern China from 2000 to 2022: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province

Jiangsu Province is an important economic province on the eastern coast of China, revealing the spatial–temporal characteristics, dynamic degree, and transition direction of land use/cover change, and its main driving factors are significant for the effective use of land resources and the promotion of regional human–land coordinated development. Based on land use data of Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2020, this study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of land use/cover using the dynamics model and the transfer matrix model, and examines the influence and interaction of the driving factors between human activities and the natural environment based on 10-factor data using Geodetector. The results showed that (1) In the past 20 years, the type of land use/cover in Jiangsu Province primarily comprises cropland, water, and impervious, with the land use/cover change mode mainly consisting of a dramatic change in cropland and impervious and relatively little change in forest, grassland, water, and barren. (2) From the perspective of the dynamic rate of land use/cover change, the single land use dynamic degree showed that impervious is the only land type whose dynamics have positively increased from 2000 to 2010 and 2010 to 2020, with values of 3.67% and 3.03%, respectively. According to the classification of comprehensive motivation, the comprehensive land use motivation in Jiangsu Province in each time period from 2000 to 2010 and 2010 to 2020 is 0.46% and 0.43%, respectively, which belongs to the extremely slow change type. (3) From the perspective of land use/cover transfer, Jiangsu Province is mainly characterized by a large area of cropland transfer (−7954.30 km2) and a large area of impervious transfer (8759.58 km2). The increase in impervious is mainly attributed to the transformation of cropland and water, accounting for 4066.07 km2 and 513.73 km2 from 2010 to 2020, which indicates that the non-agricultural phenomenon of cropland in Jiangsu Province, i.e., the process of transforming cropland into non-agricultural construction land, is significant. (4) From the perspective of driving factors, population density (q = 0.154) and night light brightness (q = 0.156) have always been important drivers of land use/cover change in Jiangsu Province. The interaction detection indicates that the land use/cover change is driven by both socio-economic factors and natural geographic factors. (5) In response to the dual pressures of climate change and rapid urbanization, coordinating the multiple objectives of socio-economic development, food security, and ecological protection is the fundamental path to achieving sustainable land use in Jiangsu Province and similar developed coastal areas. By revealing the characteristics and driving factors of land use/cover change in Jiangsu Province, this study provides qualitative and quantitative theoretical support for the coordinated decision-making of economic development and land use planning in Jiangsu Province, specifically contributing to sustainable land planning, climate adaptation policy-making, and the enhancement of community well-being through optimized land use.