NATO defence readiness in Europe: A CRINK scenario analysis

This study investigates NATO’s preparedness to cope with a protracted conflict and war in Europe, the additional challenges that allies would face in a worst-case scenario, and the strategies that can enhance their readiness. Guided by the NATO 2025 Hague Summit Declaration and the EU’s White Paper on European Defence Readiness 2030, the study analyses selected capabilities of forces at the tactical and critical enablers at the operational level. To evaluate the preparedness of NATO to cope with a protracted conflict and war, are leveraged historical and contemporaneous defence data on Europe in a statistical analysis. Both the examined defence industrial capacity and the cross-border military mobility contribute to vulnerabilities in the overall European defence readiness. To stress-test the NATO defence readiness in Europe in a hypothetical worst-case scenario non-kinetic geopolitical conflict with CRINK– the study leverages an empirically validated global model. Scenario analysis results suggest that today’s existing problems will only be amplified in a protracted conflict with CRINK. By quantifying the potential cost of unpreparedness, this study provides a measurable rationale for European allies to embark on a rapid de-risking trajectory, rather than waiting for a much more costly, abrupt shock trigger dictated by the increasingly unpredictable CRINK.