Modeling Flow-level Traffic Demand for Network Performance Evaluation and Optimization

Modeling traffic demand at the flow level is essential for accurate network performance evaluation and optimization. However, despite its prevalence, the common practice is oversimplified and relies on unsubstantiated assumptions of traffic homogeneity and independent arrivals. In this paper, we analyze real-world traffic data collected from production environments to challenge these assumptions. Our findings reveal notable fidelity issues in the common practice, compromising the reliability of network performance evaluation and optimization. To address these limitations, we introduce Encore, a flow-level traffic demand modeling framework that captures key traffic characteristics and generates high-fidelity synthetic traces. Encore adopts a divide-and-conquer strategy, employing tailored machine learning models for distributional and sequential modeling, along with problem-specific enhancements. Systematic evaluations demonstrate that Encore outperforms existing traffic modeling methods in terms of accuracy and coverage in distribution modeling, and fidelity in sequential modeling. In addition to accurately restoring key characteristics of real traffic, Encore improves simulation performance consistency by a factor of 4 to 17 over the common practice. Moreover, Encore achieves a ~0.88 correlation in parameter ranking compared to the ground truth, showcasing its practical utility for network optimization.