Prediction of Financial Contagion and Bank Failure in 5 Asean Countries Corporate Governance as a Moderation (Survey Commercial and Exchange Banking in Asean)

This study analyzes the effects of financial contagion and good corporate governance (GCG) on bankruptcy prediction models in ASEAN banks (Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand). Using secondary data from 145 banks (82 healthy, 63 bankrupt) covering 2016–2024, a logistic regression model was applied in three stages: without moderation, with contagion and GCG as moderating variables, and with them as independent variables. The results show that financial contagion increases the probability of bankruptcy, while GCG reduces it. Profitability and liquidity decrease bankruptcy risk, solvency increases it, and risk management shows no significant effect. The study highlights the dual role of contagion in amplifying risk and GCG in mitigating bankruptcy likelihood.