Integrated analysis of land use changes, ecosystem service valuation, and carbon sequestration in the Dimbhe Watershed (2002–2022)

This study aims to evaluate changes in ecosystem service values (ESVs) and carbon stock in the Dimbhe watershed (2002–2022) using the benefit transfer method, considering land use dynamics and economic variability. LULC classification was conducted via supervised classification on the Google Earth Engine, and a dual-approach valuation using both constant and inflation-adjusted coefficients was applied. Carbon stock and sequestration were estimated using the InVEST model. Results showed forest cover remained ~ 60% across the study period, with a 22% increase in dense forest and a 6% decline in open forest. ESVs rose from US$ 55 million in 2002 to US$ 116 million in 2012 (+ 110%) before declining to US$ 72 million in 2022 (− 37%), driven by both ecological changes and economic fluctuations. Only 3.9% and − 2.4% of these changes in ESVs during the first and second decades, respectively, were attributed to LULC alone. The watershed stored an average of 30.6 million metric tons of carbon, acting as a sink from 2002 to 2012 and a source from 2012 to 2022, leading to a net carbon loss valued at US$ 12 million in two decades. The study reveals that relying solely on constant value coefficients obscures economic variability in ESVs, emphasizing the need to incorporate actual economic values for more accurate and meaningful estimations. Recent losses in open forest have reduced carbon sequestration potential, underscoring the importance of targeted land-use planning, restoration of degraded forest areas, and implementation of incentive-based mechanisms such as PES to enhance both ecosystem functions and local livelihoods.