Active Thermal Regulation and AI Forecasting for Thin-Film CIGS Panels in High-Temperature Urban Rooftop Applications

This research presents an integrated approach to enhancing the performance of Copper Indium Gallium Selenide (CIGS) thin-film Photovoltaic (PV) panels through active thermal management for urban rooftop installations in high-temperature environments such as India. CIGS modules, while efficient under low-light and diffuse conditions, suffer significant power degradation at elevated temperatures. To address this, a water-based hybrid cooling system was developed and tested on a 10 W CIGS module, featuring aluminium-copper ductwork and an Arduino-based dual-threshold control system. Experimental trials across a wide irradiance spectrum (210-980 W/m²), with and without a 2× solar concentrator, demonstrated a 3.56% improvement in energy yield under standard conditions and a 28.5% gain with concentrated sunlight. Advanced predictive modelling using Random Forest regression further validated the thermal sensitivity and projected output behaviour of a 1 kW system, confirming a sharp decline in power beyond 50°C. The study also revealed improved durability through reduced thermal stress, as supported by the Arrhenius degradation model. Economically, the system reduces payback time and enhances ROI, particularly in high-insolation urban areas. These findings highlight the viability and scalability of intelligent cooling strategies for next-generation rooftop solar deployments in emerging economies. Major Findings: An Arduino-controlled dual-threshold cooling system significantly reduced CIGS module temperatures, improving output efficiency under rooftop conditions. A Random Forest model trained on experimental data achieved an R² of 0.932, accurately predicting nonlinear power losses due to thermal stress. The integrated system demonstrated environmental viability with low water consumption (1.2 L/day/10 W) and minimal energy overhead, supporting sustainable PV deployment in hot climates.