A new cultural cleavage? Anti-transgender attitudes and the 2024 US presidential election

Despite growing public acceptance of LGB rights, transgender rights have become a focal point of partisan polarization in the US, raising questions about their relative electoral impact. This paper examines the rising electoral salience of anti-transgender attitudes in the 2024 US presidential election, positing that they have surpassed anti-LGB attitudes as a predictor of Republican vote choice. Drawing on data from the 2024 ANES, I test whether affective orientations toward transgender individuals and opposition to transgender-inclusive policies more strongly predict support for Trump in the 2024 US presidential election compared to attitudes toward LGB individuals. Overall, I find that negative estimations of transgender individuals and opposition to pro-transgender policies are significantly associated with vote choice for Trump, outpacing analogous anti-LGB measures. This shift reflects a realignment in social conservative priorities. My findings highlight that issues surrounding gender identity are emerging as a new cultural cleavage, reshaping identity politics and partisan polarization in US elections, with implications for understanding evolving voter behavior and cultural backlash.