TEMPORAL DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY PATTERNS IN LIVESTOCK POPULATIONS OF WESTERN INDIA

This study examines livestock population dynamics across three western Indian states—Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan—from 1997 to 2019. Using five decadal livestock census periods, we analyzed species-specific data for cattle, buffalo, sheep, and goats. Statistical tools including the Coefficient of Variation (CV%), R-square (R²), Cuddy Della Valle Instability Index (CDVI), Coppock Instability Index (CII%) and Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR%) were applied to assess intertemporal variability and stability trends.The results reveal divergent trends. Gujarat showed relatively stable growth in cattle and buffalo populations with moderate sheep population instability. Maharashtra experienced a notable decline in cattle and buffalo with highly volatile trends in goats. Rajasthan’s livestock sector exhibited high volatility, particularly in sheep, while showing robust growth in buffalo and goats. These findings underscore the need for species-specific and state-specific livestock policy frameworks to manage population volatility and ensure sustainability in rural livestock economies.