Thermally Activated Static Friction Can Explain Earthquake Interactions

Abstract Unlike meteorological hazards, tectonic earthquakes remain hardly predictable, reinforcing their deadly character. This relates to an out‐of‐equilibrium, intermittent dynamic associated with a strong time asymmetry, with few and non‐systematic foreshocks sometimes preceding large earthquakes, while aftershocks are ubiquitous and have been known for a long time. However, 130 years after Omori, the physical origin of this time asymmetry and of aftershocks remains highly debated. Here, we model earthquake interactions and natural seismicity from a spring‐slider model based on a minimal number of fundamental mechanisms, namely elastic stress transfer and reaction rate theory applied to the simplest form of static friction. This allows introducing a microscopic timescale as well as temperature in a physically meaningful way, and to strikingly reproduce many aspects of seismicity and earthquake interactions. This includes (a) a power law distribution of seismic moments, (b) an Omori's as well as productivity laws for aftershocks, (c) a clustering of aftershocks nearby the edge of the mainshock rupture zone and (d) a strong time asymmetry of the seismic cycle.