From War to Revolution: Vectors of Social Premonition and the Paths of Collapse of the Russian Empire

The author contends that existing approaches to studying the pre-revolutionary situation in Russia have become insufficient. This is especially true concerning the underlying conditions that led to the revolution. For an extended period, researchers have neglected the psychosocial state of Russian society. As a result, there is a pressing need for a qualitative shift and an expansion of the source material, particularly through ego-documents from the creative elites. Historians have yet to fully grasp that the pre-war and pre-revolutionary periods were characterized by vague expectations, predictions, and forecasts circulating within society. It is also crucial to analyze the extensive correspondence that genuinely captured the sentiments of the time. An examination of these ego-documents reveals that the Russian cultural elite anticipated significant upheavals, both globally and domestically. Their fears and anticipations began to resonate with the broader masses, contributing to a decline in mutual trust within society. This breakdown fostered a tense social climate that profoundly affected the mindset of the ruling class. The nature of the autocratic system inherently stifled initiative, which led to a sense of irresponsibility among its leaders. This engendered a tendency toward imitative behavior, resulting in what can be described as a “demonstration” type of social conduct. The so-called “crisis at the top” produced a perception of administrative paralysis. The situation was further complicated by the actions of Nicholas II and his wife. Thus, the roots of the revolution were closely linked to the destructive psychology influencing both the upper and lower classes. Consequently, the unfolding events became increasingly unpredictable. Some contemporaries recognized that the so-called revolution was, in reality, a result of the self-dissolution of the autocratic system.