Climatic, topographic, and groundwater controls on runoff response to precipitation: evidence from a large-sample data set

Abstract. Understanding the factors that influence catchment runoff response is essential for effective water resource management. Runoff response to precipitation can vary significantly, depending on the dynamics of hillslope water storage and release and on the transmission of hydrological signals through the channel network. Here, we use ensemble rainfall–runoff analysis (ERRA) to characterize the runoff response of 189 Iranian catchments with diverse landscapes and climates. ERRA quantifies the increase in lagged streamflow attributable to each unit of additional precipitation, while accounting for nonlinearities in catchment behavior. Peak runoff response, as quantified by ERRA across Iran, is higher in more humid climates, in steeper and smaller catchments, and in catchments with shallower water tables. The direction and approximate magnitude of these effects persist after correlations among the drivers (e.g., deeper water tables are more common in more arid regions) are accounted for. These findings highlight the importance of catchment attributes in shaping runoff behavior, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, where climatic variability and groundwater dynamics are crucial factors in sustainable water resource management and effective flood risk mitigation.