Aiming high, achieving more, feeling well? Distinct trajectories of educational aspirations and implications for educational attainment and psychological well‐being

Adolescents' educational aspirations have substantial implications for their educational and psychological outcomes. However, little is known about the heterogeneity in trajectories of educational aspirations throughout adolescence, as well as their potential antecedents and impacts. Using data from a 5-wave longitudinal study lasting for 8 years of a nationally representative sample of 2553 adolescents (aged 10-15 years at baseline survey, M_age = 12.45, SD_age = 1.73; 49.7% girls) recruited from 25 provinces in China, this study investigated distinct developmental patterns of educational aspirations from Time 1 to Time 5 and tested how they were related to educational and psychological outcomes at Time 5 when the participants were 18-23 years old. Growth mixture modeling identified three distinct trajectories of educational aspirations: low-increasing (35.8%), moderate-stable (55.1%), and high-decreasing (9.1%). After controlling for covariates, individuals who followed the low-increasing trajectory reported lower levels of actual educational attainment at Time 5 compared with the other two groups, as well as more depressive symptoms than the moderate-stable trajectory group. However, the three trajectory groups did not differ significantly from one another in terms of subjective well-being. Furthermore, age, gender, parental educational levels, residence, and perceived academic performance are significant predictors of distinct educational aspiration trajectories. These findings emphasize the value of considering heterogeneous developmental patterns among adolescents when examining the long-term effects of educational aspirations on educational attainment and psychological well-being.