Modeling the Impact of Sectoral Employment Structure on Food Insecurity: Insight for Addressing Hunger as a Socioeconomic Challenge

Agriculture, industry, and service sectors’ employment composition is often associated with economic development metrics. The question, however, remains whether sectoral reallocation improves all dimensions of development, or whether some outcomes – such as food insecurity, one of the critical socioeconomic challenges – are being left behind. Despite the observed reduction, though persistent, in national hunger trends in South Africa, it is still unknown whether this reallocation, which reflects structural economic transformation, contributes significantly to the reduction of food insecurity in the country. Thus, this study examines the impact of sectoral employment composition on food insecurity in South Africa. The study employs the Johansen cointegration tests and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) techniques on data series for the year 1991 to 2023. Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) estimation was also employed as robust check. The Johansen cointegration tests confirm a stable long-run equilibrium between sectoral employment and hunger reduction. The findings from the FMOLS estimation for the long-run impact indicate that increases in employment share across agriculture, tertiary, and secondary sectors may correlate with heightened food insecurity, underscoring the complexity of employment-driven transformation in adressing this socioeconomic challenge. The findings further highlight the role of income in alleviating hunger. Some policy implications are put forward, such as: i) promotion of inclusive industrial policy, ii) strengthening of skills development and vocational training, and iii) promotion of sectoral employment quality, not just quantity. Future research should conduct analysis that disaggregates the Global Hunger Index (GHI) into its dimensions (i.e., undernourishment, child wasting, stunting, and mortality) to identify which aspects are most affected by sectoral employment changes. Addressing food insecurity as a key socioeconomic challenge must remain central to South Africa’s development agenda.