Pathways into and out of temporary disability retirement: an 8-year sequence analysis study in Finland

Every year, a significant number of people in Finland retire on a disability pension. Half of them are granted a temporary disability pension. Our study examines the different pathways into and out of temporary disability retirement and analyses how individual-level factors are associated with these pathways. We used comprehensive register data on Finns aged 30-58 who received a temporary disability pension in 2018 and followed them for 4 years before and after their pension claim. Sequence analysis in combination with clustering was used to identify typical patterns in and out of temporary disability pension. In addition, we examined the association between individual-level factors and the observed pathways. We identified nine distinct clusters with unique pathways. Two-thirds of the study population belonged to five clusters in which receipt of a disability pension continued for several years. The majority had been employed before receiving the pension. Only 18% belonged to a single cluster characterized by return to work, while persons in the remaining three clusters (20%) ended up in unemployment or unknown labour market states. The different pathways also differed by individual-level factors. We identified several different pathways into and out of temporary disability pensions. Most of them were characterized by long-term disability retirement rather than return to work. A better understanding of these pathways and associated individual factors is crucial to developing more effective strategies to facilitate return to work and prevent long-term disability.