The role of natural resource rents in achieving sustainable development goals: evidence from South Asian countries

Natural resource management plays a pivotal role in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly in resource-dependent developing economies. This study investigates the impact of natural resource rents—specifically Coal Rents (CR), Forest Rents (FR), Natural Gas Rents (NGR), and Oil Rents (OR)—on SDG performance in four South Asian countries: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan, over the period 2002–2023. Using balanced panel data, the analysis applies Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Panel Quantile Regression (PQR) techniques to examine both average and distributional effects. The findings reveal that NGR and OR have a statistically significant and positive impact on the SDGs across all quantiles, indicating their consistent role in promoting sustainable development. In contrast, FR shows a negative association with SDGs at lower quantiles, suggesting potential trade-offs between forest exploitation and sustainability. CR exhibits positive effects primarily in higher quantiles. Control variables, including GDP per capita and population growth rate, also show significant influence on SDG outcomes. The quantile regression approach uncovers heterogeneity in the resource–sustainability nexus, highlighting the need for differentiated policy responses. Policymakers should prioritize efficient resource utilization and targeted strategies based on development stages to align natural resource use with long-term sustainable development goals.